Dashboard

Clinical-Stage Development Pipeline

Clinical development (~8 years, idealized): first-in-human → approval

Audience

Audience lens: showing the concept and the “why”, in plain language. Click any phase or gate to read its student view.

Timeline note: The three trial phases sit on the critical path; Phase 2 is where most programs die on efficacy, and Phase 3 is the largest cash outlay before filing.

Two stacked panels share one 8-year timeline. The top panel is a Gantt of clinical workstreams grouped into lanes; the bottom panel shows candidate attrition by clinical phase, aligned to the same timeline. Phases and gates are interactive — focus one and press Enter to read its details for the selected audience.

Clinical timeline · first-in-human → approval

Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Y7Y8Clinical Trials(Phase 1–3)▸ critical pathSafety &MonitoringCMC & CommercialSupplyRegulatory &SubmissionPhase 1 · First-in-HumanPhase 1 · First-in-…Phase 2 · Proof-of-ConceptPhase 2 · Proof-of-…Phase 3 · ConfirmatoryPhase 3 · Confirmat…Phase 3 Topline ReadoutPhase 3 Topline ReadoutSafety Monitoring & PharmacovigilanceSafety Monitoring & PharmacovigilanceDSMB & Interim AnalysesDSMB & Interim AnalysesProcess Validation & Scale-upProcess Validation & Scale-upCommercial Manufacturing ReadinessCommercial Manufacturing Readi…End-of-Phase-2 Meeting (FDA)End-of-Phase-2 Meeting (FDA)NDA / BLA SubmissionNDA / BLA SubmissionRegulatory Review (NDA/BLA)Regulato…Approval & LaunchApproval & Launch

Attrition by clinical phase

≈100Phase 1 → Phase 2: 100 → 6363Phase 2 → Phase 3: 63 → 1919Phase 3 → Filing: 19 → 1111Review → Approval: 11 → 1010

Funnel counts are per ~100 programs entering Phase 1, using historical industry-average phase-transition rates — a teaching approximation, not a forecast for any single program.

Timeline caveat: Real clinical timelines commonly run 6–10+ years and vary enormously by indication; the 8-year window is a compressed teaching frame.

Stage · Clinical Trials (Phase 1–3)

Phase 2 · Proof-of-Concept

Purpose
Test whether the drug actually helps patients and select the dose to carry into Phase 3.
Student view

A larger trial in patients who really have the disease, to see if the drug works and at what dose.

Educational and idealized. Phase durations and success rates are teaching values drawn from historical industry averages; real programs vary widely by indication and design. Not regulatory, medical, or investment advice.