Dashboard

Disease indication

Parkinson's Disease

Why the animal models predict symptom relief — and almost nothing else

Therapeutic goal
Audience

Disease-modifying: Slow or halt the nigrostriatal degeneration itself. Every model put to this test has so far failed to predict the clinic: strong preclinical neuroprotection, then a null result in patients — ten times over.

Approved disease-modifying therapies
0

No therapy has ever been shown to slow the progression of Parkinson's disease.

high confidence
Ledger: model → approval
0 of 10

Disease-modifying candidates below with a completed readout. One further programme is still running.

high confidence
Typical pivotal duration
2–5 years

A delayed-start or withdrawal design is required to separate symptom masking from true modification — the single largest cost driver.

high confidence
Typical pivotal N
~600–1,500

Larger and longer than symptomatic trials because the effect being measured is a change in slope.

moderate confidence

Animal-model validity

Three standard axes. Toggle the therapeutic goal above and watch only the third column change — that asymmetry is the whole story.

Validity of Parkinson's disease animal models across face, construct, and predictive validity. Predictive validity is shown for the Slow progression goal.
ModelFaceDoes it look like the disease?ConstructDoes it arise the same way?PredictiveSlow progression
ValidityNoneLowModerateHighNo evidencenever tested — not a low score

Translation ledger

Every programme below cleared its animal model. None has yet changed the course of the disease in a patient.

Interventions that showed benefit in a Parkinson's animal model, and what happened when they reached the clinic.
InterventionRested onReachedOutcome
Exenatide
UCL / NIHR · GLP-1 receptor agonist
6-OHDAMPTP mouse
Phase 3
Exenatide-PD3 · 2025
Failed
BIIB122 / DNL151
Denali / Biogen · LRRK2 kinase inhibition
LRRK2 G2019S
Phase 2b
LUMA · 2025
Ongoing
Prasinezumab (PRX002)
Roche / Prothena · Anti-alpha-synuclein monoclonal antibody
α-syn PFFAAV α-syn
Phase 2b
PASADENA / PADOVA · 2024
Missed primary
Cinpanemab (BIIB054)
Biogen · Anti-alpha-synuclein monoclonal antibody
α-syn PFF
Phase 2
SPARK · 2021
Failed
Inosine
NINDS / Parkinson Study Group · Urate elevation / antioxidant
6-OHDAMPTP mouse
Phase 3
SURE-PD3 · 2021
Failed
Nilotinib
Georgetown University · c-Abl inhibition promoting alpha-synuclein clearance
AAV α-synα-syn PFF
Phase 2
NILO-PD · 2021
Failed
Isradipine
NINDS / Parkinson Study Group · Cav1.3 calcium-channel blocker
MPTP mouse6-OHDA
Phase 3
STEADY-PD III · 2020
Failed
Creatine
NINDS / NET-PD · Mitochondrial bioenergetic buffering
MPTP mouse
Phase 3
NET-PD LS-1 · 2015
Failed
Coenzyme Q10
NINDS · Mitochondrial complex-I support / antioxidant
MPTP mouse
Phase 3
QE3 · 2014
Failed
CERE-120 (AAV2-neurturin)
Ceregene · Neurotrophic factor gene therapy
6-OHDAMPTP primate
Phase 2b
CERE-120 Phase 2b · 2013
Failed
GDNF (intraputaminal)
Amgen · GDNF/RET neurotrophic signalling
6-OHDAMPTP primate
Phase 2
Intraputaminal GDNF · 2006
Failed
toxin model · Rat / mouse

6-OHDA lesion

A neurotoxin injected unilaterally into the nigrostriatal tract destroys dopamine neurons on one side, producing a measurable rotational asymmetry that responds to dopaminergic drugs.

Validity profile
HighFace
LowConstruct
HighPredictive · symptoms
NonePredictive · progression
Strengths
  • Near-complete, reproducible dopamine denervation
  • Rotational behaviour is a fast, quantitative readout
  • Directly predicted levodopa, dopamine agonists, and COMT inhibitors
Limitations
  • Acute chemical lesion — nothing degenerates progressively
  • No alpha-synuclein aggregation and no Lewy pathology
  • No aging component, and no non-motor prodrome
Student view

A toxin kills dopamine neurons on one side of the brain, so the animal turns in circles. Give it a dopamine drug and the turning stops — which is exactly how levodopa was refined. But nothing here degenerates slowly the way real Parkinson's does.

Ungerstedt 1968; Blandini & Armentero 2012high confidence

What is changing

The predictive-validity problem is being attacked at its root — by defining the disease biologically rather than clinically.

Parkinson's can now be defined biologically

Seed amplification assays detect misfolded alpha-synuclein in cerebrospinal fluid with roughly 88% sensitivity in sporadic PD. For the first time, trials can enrol biologically confirmed patients rather than clinically defined ones — plausibly the reason earlier disease-modifying trials were doomed before they began.

Siderowf et al., Lancet Neurology 2023 (PPMI)

Staging by biology rather than symptoms

The Neuronal Alpha-Synuclein Disease Integrated Staging System proposes staging from biomarkers instead of motor signs, opening a route to intervening years before the motor threshold — by which point most nigral neurons are already lost.

Simuni et al., Lancet Neurology 2024

Targets anchored in human genetics, not toxins

LRRK2 and GBA1 programmes derive from human genetics rather than from a toxin model, sidestepping the predictive-validity problem at its root. The trade-off is that the corresponding mice barely degenerate, so efficacy rests on biomarkers until a pivotal trial reads out.

LUMA (BIIB122) programme disclosures

Educational. Validity ratings are a coded reading of the published literature, not a consensus standard. Ledger outcomes and dates are drawn from trial reports and sponsor announcements; every figure carries an explicit confidence flag. Not medical, regulatory, or investment advice.